Viewing posts categorised under: Market Insights

The Outlook For Oil – Seeking Alpha Article

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Market Insights

We recently put together an article for Seeking Alpha labelled "The Outlook For Oil: Are Concerns Regarding U.S. Production Growth Overblown?" Click here to read the full article.

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The Rise Of Electric Vehicles And Autonomous Driving Technology – A Contrarian Perspective

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Market Insights

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Does rising US labour cost inflation pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook?

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Market Insights

One of the conundrums of the current economic expansion in the United States has been the tepid wage growth evident in the recovery thus far. Although wage growth has picked up somewhat over the past year, it remains in a band between 2.5% and 3% and below the levels of wage growth seen prior to the last recession in 2007. This conundrum is all the more perplexing, given that the official unemployment rate has continued to decline to a new cycle low of 4.4%.  

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Protected: Evolving dynamics in the US energy industry and potential investment implications

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Market Commentary, Market Insights

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The US border adjustment tax and broader protectionist policy – What are the implications?

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Insights

US equity markets have rallied strongly since the election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States, with investors largely choosing to focus on the prospective positive aspects of his administration and the scope for large corporate tax cuts, as well as a reduction in regulation. However, as we have detailed in previous articles, given Trump’s apparent protectionist instincts and anti-immigration views, there are also potential negative aspects associated with his presidency- which, broadly speaking, financial markets have chosen to ignore.  

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Are traditional banks dead?

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Insights

What does the future hold for traditional banks?

The rise of new technologies has allowed for improved mobile connectivity, cloud computing and the 'Bitcoin' phenomenon.  This has led to an increasingly negative narrative with regard to the future of existing traditional banks. Newer entrants into the financial services realm such as Paypal and Square are seen as potentially successful 'disruptors' of an industry facing increased scrutiny and regulatory zeal. Venture capital companies are clamoring to invest in new peer-to-peer lending schemes, with many seeing this as the future for lending into the next decade and beyond.

 

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How stressed are South African households?

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Commentary, Market Insights

How stressed are South African households at present?

Despite the poor economic backdrop and the recent increase in interest rates, South African households generally still appear to be in reasonably healthy shape, particularly middle to high-income households. Elevated wage and salary growth and waning demand for credit have helped keep nominal growth in disposable incomes above the growth in household indebtedness since the last recession in 2008/9.

Household Sector Disposable Income vs Debt Growth

Household Sector Disposable Income vs Debt Growth

 

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Acceleration in Chinese Private Sector Credit Growth

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Insights

Chinese Private Sector Credit Growth

Chinese private sector credit growth or loans extended by the Chinese financial system to businesses and households accelerated to 15.3% y/y in January from 14.3% y/y in December.  This is the highest rate of credit growth recorded since early 2013 and provides another indication that a “hard landing” in the Chinese economy is an unlikely scenario for 2016.  

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The US Energy Revolution – A Review

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Insights

The US Energy Revolution

US oil and gas production is expected to increase significantly over the next five years due to the use of new technologies able to unlock vast previously inaccessible oil and gas (shale) reserve formations creating a US Energy Revolution. Increasing US energy production and decreasing net energy imports have important implications for global US dollar liquidity going forward. Increasing US oil and gas production may depress global energy prices, creating substantial risks for major ‘petrostates’. Inherent political vulnerabilities may be exposed, leading to heightened geopolitical risks and risk of major energy supply disruptions. The current disparity in pricing between US natural gas prices and global gas- and oil prices will gradually be narrowed.  

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Negative Outlook for China Economy, Fixed Investment and Key Global Linkages

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Insights

Negative Outlook for China Economy, Fixed Investment and Key Global Linkages

The large growth in credit over the past five years has led to a massive capital misallocation. There exists widespread evidence of a significant capital stock surplus in certain sectors, such as residential- and commercial-property. Chinese fixed investment has averaged 50% of GDP over the past five years, an unprecedented level relative to other economies both past and present. Chinese fixed investment spending has been a major driver of global demand for industrial commodities, particularly steel and iron-ore. A substantial slowing in Chinese fixed investment spending creates substantial downside risks for industrial metals Low global interest rates and access to cheap US Dollar funding has led to the large-scale use of cheap US Dollar funding to finance risky investment projects in China. Unwind of this trade could lead to systemic risks in certain key banking centres, such as Hong Kong and Singapore and Australia by association.  

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