Viewing posts categorised under: Market Insights

The U.S. Dollar And Crude Oil – Has The Time Come For A Regime Change?

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Market Commentary, Market Insights

Blurb-In this article we discuss the relationship between the US Dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) and crude oil (NYSEARCA:USO), arguably the most important currency and commodity in the global economy today. http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4121543

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An Analysis Of Recent EIA Shale Basin Productivity Data

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Market Insights

In this article, we take a more detailed look at the most recent EIA productivity report released for October 2017 and assess what, if anything, the data means for US oil production and energy prices (NYSE:USO) as well as companies in the energy sector (NYSE:XLE) moving forward. Click here to read more

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The Outlook For Oil – Seeking Alpha Article

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Market Insights

We recently put together an article for Seeking Alpha labelled "The Outlook For Oil: Are Concerns Regarding U.S. Production Growth Overblown?" Click here to read the full article.

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The Rise Of Electric Vehicles And Autonomous Driving Technology – A Contrarian Perspective

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Market Insights

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Does rising US labour cost inflation pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook?

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Market Insights

One of the conundrums of the current economic expansion in the United States has been the tepid wage growth evident in the recovery thus far. Although wage growth has picked up somewhat over the past year, it remains in a band between 2.5% and 3% and below the levels of wage growth seen prior to the last recession in 2007. This conundrum is all the more perplexing, given that the official unemployment rate has continued to decline to a new cycle low of 4.4%.  

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Protected: Evolving dynamics in the US energy industry and potential investment implications

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Market Commentary, Market Insights

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The US border adjustment tax and broader protectionist policy – What are the implications?

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Insights

US equity markets have rallied strongly since the election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States, with investors largely choosing to focus on the prospective positive aspects of his administration and the scope for large corporate tax cuts, as well as a reduction in regulation. However, as we have detailed in previous articles, given Trump’s apparent protectionist instincts and anti-immigration views, there are also potential negative aspects associated with his presidency- which, broadly speaking, financial markets have chosen to ignore.  

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Are traditional banks dead?

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Insights

What does the future hold for traditional banks?

The rise of new technologies has allowed for improved mobile connectivity, cloud computing and the 'Bitcoin' phenomenon.  This has led to an increasingly negative narrative with regard to the future of existing traditional banks. Newer entrants into the financial services realm such as Paypal and Square are seen as potentially successful 'disruptors' of an industry facing increased scrutiny and regulatory zeal. Venture capital companies are clamoring to invest in new peer-to-peer lending schemes, with many seeing this as the future for lending into the next decade and beyond.

 

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How stressed are South African households?

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Commentary, Market Insights

How stressed are South African households at present?

Despite the poor economic backdrop and the recent increase in interest rates, South African households generally still appear to be in reasonably healthy shape, particularly middle to high-income households. Elevated wage and salary growth and waning demand for credit have helped keep nominal growth in disposable incomes above the growth in household indebtedness since the last recession in 2008/9.

Household Sector Disposable Income vs Debt Growth

Household Sector Disposable Income vs Debt Growth

 

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Acceleration in Chinese Private Sector Credit Growth

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Insights

Chinese Private Sector Credit Growth

Chinese private sector credit growth or loans extended by the Chinese financial system to businesses and households accelerated to 15.3% y/y in January from 14.3% y/y in December.  This is the highest rate of credit growth recorded since early 2013 and provides another indication that a “hard landing” in the Chinese economy is an unlikely scenario for 2016.  

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