Showing posts tagged with: ZAR

SA Tourism and Hospitality Sector Show Positive Signs

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Commentary

SA Tourism and Hospitality Sector Show Positive Signs

The latest report from Statistics SA shows that the number of foreign arrivals into the country increased by 11.4% y/y to 1.56mn in January, with 1.441mn of these arrivals being classified as foreign visitors (up 11.1% y/y). Of the total number of foreign visitors, some 1,012,641 were classified as tourists or overnight visitors, increasing by 15.4% y/y in January. A further analysis of the data showed that foreign visitors from non-African destinations (overseas) increased by 16.2% y/y to 214,903 in January. The recent data shows a fairly robust recovery in inbound tourist arrivals following the slump in early 2015. The recovery, not unexpectedly, has likely been driven by the sharp depreciation of the currency in recent months as well as the relaxation of former strict visa rules.   

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How stressed are South African households?

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Commentary, Market Insights

How stressed are South African households at present?

Despite the poor economic backdrop and the recent increase in interest rates, South African households generally still appear to be in reasonably healthy shape, particularly middle to high-income households. Elevated wage and salary growth and waning demand for credit have helped keep nominal growth in disposable incomes above the growth in household indebtedness since the last recession in 2008/9.

Household Sector Disposable Income vs Debt Growth

Household Sector Disposable Income vs Debt Growth

 

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The VW Scandal: SA Platinum Impact

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Commentary

The VW scandal

What does it mean for diesel vehicles, platinum and South Africa? There exists the potential for modestly reduced platinum demand over 1-3 years if fewer small diesel vehicles are sold as platinum is a key component of the catalytic converter found in diesel vehicles.  

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Negative Outlook for SA Economy & Financial Assets

Blue Quadrant Research Team
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Market Insights

Synopsis

Supply-side structural constraints, such as a persistent power deficit and a fractious labour environment, will constrain the country’s ability to expand export capacity Current government policy favours substantial state involvement in the economy. Ill-conceived social policy and high-levels of rent seeking activity will also continue to result in substantial capital misallocation. These dynamics will ensure that the country’s two key economic imbalances, namely the fiscal and current account deficits, will remain large and entrenched as a feature of the country’s economic fundamentals. A depressed commodity price environment, with the exception gold, and higher energy prices will lead to a deterioration in terms of trade, and create additional external headwinds for the economy. Rising global interest rates and a reduction in US Dollar liquidity will make it difficult for South Africa to fund its current account deficit resulting in a sustained depreciation in the currency.  

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